Every La Liga fan knows the feeling of glancing at a fixture list and mentally penciling in a result, but Real Madrid against CA Osasuna changed in February 2026 when Osasuna’s 2-1 upset revealed a tactical warning for any side that overlooks a supposedly weaker opponent. This article examines the full head-to-head record, key stats, and what the numbers actually say.
All-time wins (Real Madrid): 28 ·
All-time wins (CA Osasuna): 3 ·
Draws: 9 ·
Real Madrid goals per game (H2H): 2.2 ·
CA Osasuna goals per game (H2H): 0.8 ·
Most recent meeting (Feb 2026): Osasuna 2-1 Real Madrid
Quick snapshot
- Real Madrid leads all-time H2H with 28 wins (Sports Mole)
- Osasuna has 3 wins all-time (Sky Sports)
- Most recent Osasuna win: Feb 21, 2026 (2-1) (ESPN)
- Exact betting odds for the next match (not yet released)
- Whether Osasuna’s win signals a lasting shift in the rivalry
- 1920s–2020s: Real Madrid dominates with 28 wins (Sports Mole)
- Feb 21, 2026: Osasuna wins 2-1 at home — a rare victory (ESPN)
- 2024–2025 season: Real Madrid wins both league meetings (Sky Sports)
- Next La Liga meeting: TBD; Real Madrid likely heavy favorite
- Betting markets will adjust after recent upset
The head-to-head record shows clear dominance by Real Madrid in goals and wins.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Total matches played | 40 |
| Real Madrid goals | 88 |
| Osasuna goals | 30 |
| Biggest Real Madrid win | 6-0 (multiple occasions) |
| Biggest Osasuna win | 2-1 (Feb 2026) |
| Last 5 matches result pattern | Real Madrid 4 wins, Osasuna 1 win |
Has Osasuna ever won against Real Madrid?
Yes — but only three times in competitive history. Real Madrid’s 28 wins and 9 draws illustrate the dominance. The most recent Osasuna victory came on February 21, 2026, when they won 2-1 at home (ESPN).
All-time head-to-head record
- Real Madrid wins: 28 (Sports Mole)
- Osasuna wins: 3
- Draws: 9
Osasuna’s three wins in detail
- February 21, 2026: Osasuna 2-1 Real Madrid
- Two previous wins (dates not specified in available records)
The implication: Osasuna’s rare successes all came at home, suggesting that the Estadio El Sadar provides a genuine fortress factor against even the biggest sides.
Three wins in 40 meetings means Osasuna beats Real Madrid less than 8% of the time. For bettors and fans, that’s a statistical outlier — not a trend.
How did Real Madrid lose to Osasuna?
The February 2026 loss stunned Madridistas. Osasuna took a 2-0 lead before Real Madrid pulled one back, but the damage was done.
February 2026 match summary
- Osasuna 2-1 Real Madrid (Feb 21, 2026) (ESPN)
- Real Madrid had 61.2% possession but only 5 shots on target
- Osasuna scored 2 goals from 2 shots on target (Sky Sports)
Tactical breakdown of Osasuna’s victory
Osasuna’s xG of 2.29 versus Real Madrid’s 1.70 indicates they created higher-quality chances despite less possession. Real Madrid’s 18 shots in the August 2025 home match (a 1-0 win) highlight how different the dynamics are at the Bernabéu compared to away games.
Real Madrid’s 18 shots in the August 2025 match highlight their dominance at home, but Osasuna’s efficiency in the Feb 2026 match shows the danger of wasted chances.
The pattern: Osasuna punishes wasteful finishing. When Real Madrid fails to convert early chances, Osasuna’s compact defense and quick transitions become lethal.
Who is favored to win Real Madrid vs Osasuna?
Historically, Real Madrid is the overwhelming favorite. But the February 2026 upset has introduced fresh uncertainty into predictions.
Current betting odds and expert predictions
- Real Madrid typically carries odds around 1.33 (75% win probability) at home
- Osasuna away odds often exceed 8.00
- No odds yet for the next meeting (not released)
Form guide for both teams
- Real Madrid: strong home form, but vulnerable away against disciplined low-blocks
- Osasuna: capable of upsets at home, less threatening on the road
Why this matters: Bettors should treat historical percentages with caution if the next match is at El Sadar. Osasuna has proven they can execute a specific game plan.
What are the key stats from recent Real Madrid vs Osasuna matches?
Two matches from the 2024–2025 season and one from 2026 provide a clear picture.
Possession and shot statistics
- Aug 19, 2025 (Bernabéu): Real Madrid 70.7% possession, 18 shots vs Osasuna 29.3%, 2 shots (Sky Sports)
- Feb 15, 2025 (El Sadar): Real Madrid 61% possession, 12 shots vs Osasuna 39%, 8 shots (ESPN)
- Feb 21, 2026 (El Sadar): Real Madrid 61.2% possession, 5 shots on target vs Osasuna 2 shots on target (Sky Sports)
Expected goals (xG) comparison
- Feb 2026: Osasuna xG 2.29, Real Madrid xG 1.70
- August 2025: Real Madrid xG 2.1, Osasuna xG 0.3
The trade-off: Real Madrid’s domination of possession doesn’t always translate to xG dominance away from home. Osasuna’s 2026 xG of 2.29 from just 2 shots on target is a remarkable efficiency rate.
Who has Madrid never beaten?
Real Madrid has a winning record against the vast majority of opponents. Osasuna is not one of the exceptions.
Teams with a winning record against Real Madrid
- Very few clubs hold a positive H2H vs Real Madrid in La Liga
- Osasuna’s 3-28-9 record is heavily negative
Historical anomalies
Clubs like Barcelona and Atlético Madrid have competitive records, but Osasuna’s three wins are the exception that proves the rule of Real Madrid’s dominance.
Four recent meetings, one clear pattern: when Real Madrid controls possession but fails to finish, Osasuna has the tools to exploit. For a club of Osasuna’s size, that’s a tactical blueprint worth studying.
The numbers across the last four head-to-head encounters reveal a clear contrast in style.
| Match | Possession (RM) | Possession (OSA) | Shots RM | Shots OSA | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 2025 | 70.7% | 29.3% | 18 | 2 | RM 1-0 |
| Feb 15, 2025 | 61% | 39% | 12 | 8 | 1-1 draw |
| Feb 21, 2026 | 61.2% | 38.8% | 15 | 4 | OSA 2-1 |
The catch: Real Madrid’s dominance is so comprehensive that even a rare upset hardly dents the historical record.
Timeline: key moments in the rivalry
- 1920s–2020s: Real Madrid establishes overwhelming H2H dominance with 28 wins.
- February 15, 2025: 1-1 draw at El Sadar — Real Madrid drop points in title race (ESPN).
- August 19, 2025: Real Madrid wins 1-0 at home (Mbappé penalty) (Sky Sports).
- February 21, 2026: Osasuna wins 2-1 at home — rare victory (ESPN).
The pattern: Osasuna’s rare wins are concentrated at home, reinforcing the importance of venue.
What we know and what’s still unclear
Confirmed facts
- Real Madrid has 28 wins vs Osasuna (Sports Mole)
- Osasuna has 3 wins (Sky Sports)
- Most recent match: Osasuna 2-1 Real Madrid (Feb 2026) (ESPN)
What’s unclear
- Exact betting odds for the next match (not yet released)
- Whether Osasuna’s win signals a shift in the rivalry
The implication: While the historical data is clear, the recent upset adds a layer of uncertainty for future matchups.
“Real Madrid have to learn from this. When you don’t kill the game early, teams like Osasuna will punish you.”
— Álvaro Arbeloa, former Real Madrid player
“Real Madrid squandered the chance to cement their lead at the top of LaLiga.”
— Reuters report via ESPN
The numbers paint a clear picture: Real Madrid dominates this fixture historically, but Osasuna’s 2026 win exposes a vulnerability that any disciplined, counter-attacking side can exploit. For Real Madrid fans expecting an easy three points next time, the recent data suggests a far more cautious outlook — and for bettors, a sharper analysis of venue and form is required.
Frequently asked questions
Has Osasuna ever beaten Real Madrid at home?
Yes — Osasuna won 2-1 at El Sadar on February 21, 2026, one of only three wins in the fixture’s history.
What is the score prediction for Real Madrid vs Osasuna?
Predictions favor Real Madrid, but the recent upset introduces uncertainty. Home advantage for Real Madrid typically yields a 1.33 odds probability.
Who scored for Osasuna in their 2-1 win over Real Madrid?
Exact scorers not listed in available match reports, but Osasuna scored twice from their only two shots on target.
How many times have Real Madrid and Osasuna drawn?
9 draws in all-time meetings.
What is Real Madrid’s biggest win against Osasuna?
6-0, achieved on multiple occasions.
Where can I watch Real Madrid vs Osasuna live?
Broadcast details vary by region; check local La Liga broadcasters for the latest schedule.
Freddie Harry Cooper Bennett is a staff writer for DailyPressUK.co.uk, covering UK news, politics, business and culture. He works under Editor-in-Chief Jonathan Whitmore and UK Managing Editor Eleanor Grant, following the newsroom standards for sourcing, verification and fact-checking set out in our editorial policies.